Russia’s military is closing in on the key city of Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s East, with the potential to gain a significant strategic advantage in seizing the rest of the Donbas region. The city is central to many rail and road lines in the area, and a successful Russian assault could cut off main supply lines for Ukrainian troops and threaten positions to the south of the city.
Ukraine has fortified its defenses around Pokrovsk and sent additional troops to the area to fend off Russian attacks. Russia has shifted its focus from a frontal assault to the city to assaults to the south, looking to encircle Ukrainian troops between Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. The advance towards Pokrovsk has been the most successful part of Russia’s offensive in the Donbas this summer, with limited gains achieved elsewhere along the frontline.
While the overall Russian offensive in the Donbas has been costly and incremental, Ukraine launched a surprise invasion of the Kursk region in August, capturing more territory in Russia in a month than Russia has in Ukraine over the past year. However, the hold on these gains in Russia is yet to be tested in a serious counterattack.
The upcoming fall rains may limit movement on both sides as the fast-moving phase of the war slows down, with all but paved roads becoming muddy tracks impassable for heavy vehicles. Russia’s continued push forward in the Donbas, despite Ukraine’s advances in Russia, suggests a prolonged conflict in the region.
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