US officials have announced that the US-led coalition fighting ISIL in Iraq will wind down by the end of 2025, but have not provided clarity on the future of US military presence in the country. The joint announcement mentioned a transition rather than a withdrawal, with a phased wind-down expected to be completed by September 2025. The US will continue to operate in some capacity in Iraq through 2026 to support anti-ISIS coalition efforts in Syria.
The US-Iraq defense ties will shift towards an expanded bilateral security relationship, although it is unclear if this will result in a full withdrawal of US troops. The US initially invaded Iraq in 2003 as part of the global war on terror and redeployed forces in 2014 to combat ISIL. The Biden administration shifted troops to an advisory role in 2021 and began talks in January to further wind down troops in cooperation with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.
The continued presence of US troops in Iraq has faced opposition from influential factions in the government and led to attacks on US bases by Iran-aligned militias. These attacks have diminished since the start of Israel’s war in Gaza in October 2023. The future of the US military presence in Iraq remains uncertain as officials refrain from speculating on the specifics of the transition.
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